A current rumor surrounding Athens, Georgia has given rise to speculation that Georgia Bulldogs head coach Mark Richt’s job is on the line after a somewhat rough start to the year.

The issue goes much deeper than a couple poor outings in 2009, though; Bulldog nation is tired of playing second fiddle in the SEC East.

Last year Georgia started the season ranked No. 1 in the nation, and everyone thought they were a legitimate contender for a national title. Things went straight downhill as the Bulldogs lost three games, most notably to rival Florida.

The defensive struggles that Georgia experienced last year have spilled over into 2009, and many are claiming that defensive coordinator Willie Martinez should be fired.

Much of the frustration amongst the Bulldog fans is due to something Richt can’t control: Last year Georgia suffered 18 season-ending injuries, a fate that would cripple any team.

Two major things need to happen for Richt to maintain his position as head coach of Georgia.

1. Richt needs to prove he can make the hard decision and fire a coordinator if he is not performing.

Many people doubt his ability to be the tough guy he needs to be as a head coach. His personal relationships with both coordinators would make a decision to move along without them very tough. If the defense doesn’t improve by the end of the year, Richt will need to pull the trigger and fire Martinez.

2. Georgia needs to outperform Florida on the recruiting scene.

While Richt’s Bulldogs have been a consistent top 10 or 15 team in recruiting, the Gators are almost always in the top five. It will be impossible to get any traction on Florida if they are continually falling farther behind in talent.

While this seems far-fetched, the emergence of Florida State and Miami back into the national picture helps Georgia. Recruits in the state of Florida now are considering all three schools as legitimate programs, whereas the past few years has allowed Florida to get the cream of the crop.

One other thing comes to mind that should help Bulldog fans feel more confident about their coach. A saying in any sport regarding coaches is, “Don’t fire somebody until you know who you are going to replace him with.”

Be honest with yourselves, Georgia fans. Who out there is available and is going to outperform Mark Richt? He is definitely a step behind Urban Meyer at this point, but last time I checked Pete Carroll is the only contender for that position, and he’s not leaving sunny Southern California.

Richt has a great program going at Georgia, and it would be a mistake to let him go. He has some steps to take to get the program to a national title, but going with someone else would be taking steps backwards and would put Georgia among the South Carolinas and Kentuckys of the SEC.

It’s hard to pull yourself out of bed as a Georgia fan this week.  Waking up to a gorgeous day suddenly gets smashed when the memory of the LSU game comes to mind.

As a fan, I can attest that Georgia left a bitter taste in my mouth and I went a few hours without cracking a smile after the game.  Taking emotion out of the loss brings a whole new perspective, though, as I realized that Georgia is really not in any worse position than they were before the game.

Now I know for the downtrodden UGA fans out there, this is probably the last thing you want to read as you curse the ref who flagged A.J Green for excessive celebration.  It’s easy to get caught up in the emotions that come from the fourth quarter roller coaster ride LSU and Georgia gave us yesterday.  To see the bigger picture of what this game meant to both teams, we have to look at the SEC as a whole.

Georgia was not expected to compete in the SEC East this year, and they knew heading into 2009 that Florida was their biggest challenge.  The Gators are already penciled in for the National Championship game in Pasadena and nobody was expecting much out of the Dawgs.  After a few flashes of talent, Georgia is beginning to get attention from the national media.

In order for Georgia to win the East they needed to beat out the Gators either by winning their head-to-head game in Jacksonville or by Florida picking up two losses in SEC play.  No person in their right mind can expect that Florida will lose two of their SEC matchups.  They have one of the easiest schedules with no Mississippi or Alabama on the schedule and only one true road test, LSU.

With that option gone, Georgia has known all year that they need a win in Jacksonville if they are going to have any shot in the East.  While that matchup is an entirely different article, let’s say that theoretically the Dawgs can somehow find a way to take care of business and Florida loses.

In this scenario, Georgia simply has to win the rest of their SEC schedule in order to take the East and play for the SEC Championship in Atlanta.  This is the only place that the LSU loss hurts them.  Now that they already have one loss in the conference, they need four important wins at both Tennessee and Vanderbilt, and late-season home victories against Auburn and Kentucky.

Georgia needs to be careful because the letdown factor from this week could spill over into a poor outing in Knoxville. While Georgia’s talent is superior to Tennessee, they need to stay focused on the big picture and forget the loss to LSU.

The Dawgs still control their own destiny in the SEC East and have a great chance to win in every game, with the exception of the Cocktail Party.  If Georgia can rebound against Tennessee this week and Vanderbilt next week, they put themselves in a great position.  A bye week heading into the Florida game could be the difference maker and with a little luck, Georgia could win the East.

Now I know that’s a lot of factors, but keep in mind the Mark Richt’s team has a history of finishing strong.  With the exception of the Florida game, the last two years Georgia has not lost an SEC game after the first week of October.  If that statistic holds true, then the entire season will boil down to one heated game on Halloween afternoon.

1. Alabama

After sitting at number two all year, the Tide move into the number one spot in the SEC Power Rankings with a little help from their friends. Make no mistake, Alabama is stacked this year and their defense made a statement this week by holding Arkansas to only 7 points.

While Florida may be the better team by the end of the year, if these two teams played head-to-head next week, Alabama would have the edge with the injury to Tebow. One thing that Alabama has is the ability to make big plays. Quarterback Greg McElroy has had three straight games with over 70 percent of his passes completed and is averaging over 10 yards per attempt.

2. Florida

While we don’t know the severity of Tebow’s injury, all indications are that John Brantley has the ability to fill the roll and maintain some level of productivity on offense. If Florida keeps playing defense the way they have, they don’t need to score much.

They lead the SEC with 7.3 points allowed per game. The bye week will help the Gators regroup and prepare before heading into the toughest part of their schedule. Look for a strong performance against LSU in two weeks.

3. Georgia

With two unimpressive outings from LSU and Mississippi, Georgia slides up in the rankings. Expectations are low, but Georgia has shown they can win the close ones. Nail-biters in the last three wins were only by six points, on average.

When the offense is hot, UGA can put up big numbers, but their defense is giving up nearly 30 points per game. This week will be a big test with LSU traveling to Athens. If the defense can contain and Joe Cox has a mistake-free game, then it looks promising for the Bulldogs.

4. LSU

This week scared Tiger nation as LSU struggled to put away one of the SEC’s worst teams, Mississippi State. Once again, highly-touted running back Charles Scott was a no-show, as he carried only six times for 15 yards. After nearly 1,200 yards on the ground last year, Scott is only averaging 45 yards per game in 2009.

Another weakness that could be exposed against Georgia is the nearly 200 yards passing they have given up each game. On the positive side, Jordan Jefferson has been a stud with over 700 yards passing and seven touchdown tosses. Look for a great game from him as he tries to exploit the weak Georgia pass defense.

5. Auburn

While their defense isn’t scaring anyone, their offense has been lights-out on a consistent basis. They are averaging 45.3 points per game; almost identical to Florida’s numbers. Auburn has an SEC best 1,060 yards passing and second-best 1,045 yards rushing.

This week is a great test of that balanced attack, as the Tigers face one of the best defenses in the SEC in Tennessee. Look for a big day out of Chris Todd, as Auburn will try to move the ball through the air if Tennessee focuses on taking away the run.

6. Mississippi

We don’t know if the loss to South Carolina was just a hiccup or a true indication of the talent level of the Rebels. One thing is for sure, though; Mississippi has a lot of improvement that needs to be made in two weeks before they face Alabama.

As bad as the final score was against the Gamecocks, it still doesn’t show how effectively the Rebels offense was shut down. Of their 248 total yards, 125 of them came in the fourth quarter and a late touchdown was all that helped them save face. The upcoming game against Vanderbilt should be a good indicator of whether Mississippi can regroup or if they are a flop this year.

7. Arkansas

Despite the loss to Alabama, the Hogs are still a tough group to deal with. Alabama did a good job of defending against the pass and that is the only way to beat Arkansas. The Achilles’ heel for the Razorbacks is the lack of defense, with an SEC-worst 32 points per game allowed. The run defense has been fairly solid, but opponents are burning them for 263 yards through the air every game.

Those kinds of numbers are not going to win too many games in the SEC. Arkansas has a tough four-game stretch ahead of them with Texas A&M and Auburn at home, followed by Florida and Mississippi on the road. Don’t expect more than two wins in the next four for the Hogs.

8. Tennessee

The Tennessee defense had somewhat of a lapse this week as they allowed 319 passing yards to Ohio. This is one game that can go in the positive column for Jonathan Crompton, as he threw two touchdowns and only one interception. There are still big question marks for the offense, most notably the eight picks thrown by Crompton.

The defense does have the ability to win them a lot of games, though. Tennessee heads into the toughest stretch of their schedule as they host Auburn and Georgia, take their bye week, travel to Alabama, then face South Carolina at home. If Tennessee can shut down the high-powered offense of Auburn and get a win, it will be a good step towards a bright future in Knoxville.

9. South Carolina

While their Thursday night win was a big one against Mississippi, the Gamecocks are still a long way from being a contender in the SEC. They have good yardage statistics, but their offense has failed to be consistent and have only put up 24.5 points per game; second worst in the conference.

South Carolina is still one of the hardest teams to read because of how high and low their swings have been. They looked very mediocre against North Carolina State in their opener, but in the Georgia game, their offense showed flashes of brilliance. October 17th is the day when expectations will either be confirmed or denied as South Carolina travels to play Alabama.

10. Mississippi State

This week was a great performance from the Bulldogs. They stood toe-to-toe with LSU in every major statistical category except one; turnovers. Three interceptions and a fumble gave LSU a win they did not deserve after the Mississippi State defense shut down the LSU running game.

While the Bulldogs are not going to be competing for a SEC title this year, they have suddenly become scary with a scrappy defense and a good running game. They could be a good sleeper team, as they have five ranked teams still on their schedule. Look for an upset this week as they host a deflated Georgia Tech at home.

11. Vanderbilt

One of the most surprising units in the SEC this year could be the Vanderbilt defense, which has given up only 13.8 points per game. They lead the SEC with only 106 yards passing allowed per game and have already racked up five interceptions.

They could be the next team to upset Mississippi this week, as their defense squares off against Jevan Snead. The Commodore offense has improving to do in the passing game, as they have only scored one touchdown through the air all year.

12. Kentucky

It’s hard being near the bottom of the conference and having to go up against the number one team in the nation. Kentucky couldn’t move the ball Saturday as they accumulated only 179 yards of total offense all day.

To make matters worse, the schedule looks gruesome for the Wildcats with three straight SEC games looming against Alabama, South Carolina, and Auburn. After that, the pain may ease with a manageable schedule until the last two weeks of the season. Be prepared for a tough stretch in Lexington.

As the University of Florida begins and ends practice every day, each player knows the reality of the season ahead of them. Every fan of the Gators expects a repeat National Championship from the team that returns almost every key starter on both sides of the ball.

All around the nation, every poll has Florida at the No. 1 spot and no expectation of a loss on their schedule. The question is not which game the Gators will lose but simply if one game is realistically winnable for another team.

Individually, no team can say they match the talent level and experience the Gators have but with the wear and tear of an SEC season Florida is likely to fall victim to a loss.

Florida Losses From Past Three Years

In the Tim Tebow era the Gators have lost six games dating back to October 14, 2006, when Auburn won at home 27-17. That was the only loss for the eventual National Champions that year.

The following season saw Florida slip to 9-4 with losses coming to Auburn (20-17), at LSU (24-28), to Georgia (42-30) in Jacksonville, and to Michigan (41-35) in Orlando at the Citrus Bowl.

Last year the only blemish on the Gators record was a 31-30 loss at home to the Mississippi Rebels in what was possibly the upset of the year.

Scouting Report

When the six losses are examined statistically, several trends emerge to give teams insight and hope at toppling the giant in the East.

The overall scoring showed that with the exception of the LSU game, every team that beat Florida scored first to take an early lead. In addition, everyone except LSU was leading or tied going into the fourth quarter. While the Gators offense is potent, they have struggled to come back late in games. Since Tebow took over as the starter, the Gators are 1-5 when trailing at any point in the second half. The only time they reversed that trend was in last year’s SEC Championship Game against Alabama.

Turnovers have played a key part in many of the games as well as Florida has turned the ball over an average of two times per loss. Michigan was the only team to not beat Florida in the turnover battle while the Gators made big mistakes against other opponents.

A key component to any upset win is making at least one big play. In the 2006 loss to Auburn, the Tigers were able to score on a blocked punt, a fumble, and a safety. Georgia was able knock off Florida with two passing touchdowns of 84 and 53 yards. Most recently, Mississippi was able to showcase the big play with a 40-yard rushing touchdown and an 86 yard score through the air.

Finally, yardage also revealed several possible weaknesses for Florida. Florida was exposed on the ground in several losses giving up 133 yards rushing to Auburn, 140 to Mississippi, 151 to Michigan, 196 to Georgia, and 247 to LSU Compare this to the Gators average of 92.9 yards rushing per game allowed since 2006, and it is evident that the ground game is needed to get a win against Florida.

While no team has the talent to beat the Gators on paper, if these trends hold true, Florida will likely take one loss this season. Look out if the Gators don’t get on the board first as they have only twice in two years let an opponent lead with a touchdown and still come back to win.

If a team can score early, run the ball effectively, make a big play, and hold a lead at some point in the second half, they have the perfect recipe to upset the Gators.