The Gators are on a 17 game winning streak with Superman himself in the bid for his second Heisman and a defense that is third in the nation.  My counterpart Trey Jones covers the Gators view of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in his article Creature vs. Creature: A Gator’s Take on a Bulldog Beating in Jacksonville.

Despite the obvious talent gap between the teams, the Dawgs aim to stop the bleeding of a 3-16 record in the last 19 matchups against Florida.  While Georgia is still atop the all-time series record, the Bulldogs have spent far too long playing the role of younger brother to the giant of the sunshine state.

Let’s set things clear for any doubters; this game still constitutes as a rivalry.  If Georgia could be guaranteed a win in one game each year, they would always pick Florida.  Bulldog fans have never hated the Gators more and a win may not ever be as satisfying as one this year could be.

At the beginning of the season I wrote an article that analyzed the Florida Gators and looked for any cracks in the armor. (SEC Scouting Report: How to Beat the Florida Gators)  Since the dawn of the Tim Tebow era in Gainesville the Gators have lost only six games.  Several trends emerged that could provide the game plan Georgia needs to upset their rivals.

The Georgia Game Plan

One common thread to every Florida loss during this span is the presence of a solid run game by the opponent.  Georgia can forget about that idea though as they rank dead last in the SEC with 108 yards rushing per game and they are going up against the Gators who are second best in the conference against the rush.

An interesting note about Florida’s vulnerability is that teams who stick around have a great chance at knocking them off.  Since 2006, Florida is just 2-5 when trailing at any point in the second half.  If Georgia can survive the initial surge then there is hope.

Sacks have also been a pitfall for Florida as Tebow becomes very mediocre when he gets rattled.  In the Bulldog’s 2007 victory they were able to get to Tebow six times which helped hold him to -15 yards rushing.  This year the Florida offensive line has allowed 15 sacks; the same number they allowed all last year.

The last two weeks both Arkansas and Mississippi State have been able to exploit this weakness as Tebow went down nine times.  Both games proved to be nail-bitters for Gator fans and Georgia will be looking to continue the trend.

Speaking Of Tebow…

While Tebow is unquestionably the best quarterback in the SEC, do we dare admit that he is not performing at the level we are used to from him?  Numbers don’t lie and while the Gator great will go down as a legend of college football, something is missing from Florida’s quarterback this year.

All offseason there was talk of how Tebow was going to improve his passing game and become a greater threat through the air.  That prediction could not be further from the truth.  So far he has matched his 2008 total interceptions of four while passing for only eight touchdowns compared to 30 a year ago.

With all the Gator’s directional schools and junior college opponents taken out of the stats, Tebow’s SEC numbers tell all.  In conference play the star quarterback has thrown for just 147 yards per game while last year he put up 193 yards through the air on average.

Can Georgia Move The Ball?

It would be unrealistic to assess this weekend’s matchup without taking a good look at Georgia’s offensive woes.  No matter how much the Florida offense may struggle, it will be impossible to win without a strong performance from the Bulldogs offense.

One statistic that stands out is third down efficiency.  While Georgia has been good on third down, converting just under 40 percent, the Gators defense has held SEC offenses to just 13 for 62 on third down this season.

With the absence of a running game, a lot of pressure will be put on Joe Cox to move the ball through the air.  Look for a lot of quick throws early to compensate for the running game and boost the confidence of Cox.

“Must-Have” Keys For A Win

While there is no exact recipe for an upset, there are trends that emerge and factors pointing the Bulldogs to several must-have components.

• A.J. Green Must Have An Impact - Sophomore receiver A.J. Green is the best player on the Georgia offense and he must have a lot of touches.  He can work miracles with the ball in his hands and this game is a great platform to showcase his talent.

• Joe Cox Must Avoid Turnovers – Without exception, the Dawgs must play mistake-free football and Joe Cox becomes the most important part of that equation.  The Florida defense is too good to expect big numbers from Cox but interceptions will be a dagger in the heart.

• Defensive Line Must Dominate - The Georgia defensive line has shown spurts of brilliance while also managing to perform with much mediocrity at times.  The front four will have to be explosive and get Tebow rattled for the Dawgs to have any shot at slowing down the Gator offense.

• Special Teams Must Make A Play - While the kicking game for Georgia is solid, they need a game-changing play in the form of a blocked kick or a return for a score.  Look for freshmen Branden Boykin to light the fuse and spark a Georgia victory.

If Georgia manages to excel in these areas they put themselves in a position to upset the Gators and take back bragging rights in the rivalry.

No amount of talent can overcome the hatred that these two teams have for each other and Meyer and Richt will have their boys ready to play on Saturday.

At the halfway point of the 2009 football season, the SEC classroom has several players who have been playing hooky for too long.

Here are a few of the SEC’s ”best” who have not been living up to the reputation.

Julio Jones – Alabama – Wide Receiver

Last year, Julio Jones came into Tuscaloosa as one of the highest rated freshmen in the league.

The first half of 2009 was good to Jones who scored four touchdowns in his first five games. Since his touchdown against Georgia on September 27, 2008, he has been quiet. Jones went one day short of a year before reaching the end zone again with a touchdown grab against Arkansas.

In six games this year, Jones has crossed the 50 yard receiving mark only once. It is safe to say the Julio Jones is a prime candidate for the SEC’s most overrated player of the year.

Charles Scott – LSU – Running Back

During his junior season, Scott bulldozed defenses with 1,174 yards rushing and 18 touchdowns in 2009. While LSU has been a dominant team this year, Scott has failed to be a factor.

In six games, Scott has gained only gained 327 yards rushing and only two touchdowns on the ground. He has failed to cross the 100 yard mark in a game and his yards per carry is down significantly from last year.

Richard Samuel and Caleb King – Georgia – Running Backs

While 2009 wasn’t predicted to be a standout year for the Bulldogs, the running game was supposed to carry the team.

There was little fear in Athens because both Samuel and King were highly touted recruits who were both capable of filling in behind Knowshon Moreno.

The running game has been stagnant at best with an SEC worst 108 yards per game.

Together, King and Samuel have only rushed for three touchdowns and less than 500 yards. The tandem that was expected to dominate defenses has been unimpressive and a big part of why Georgia has lost three games already.

Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech both head into Saturday night’s game with their seasons on the line and with defining statements to make in a crowded ACC Coastal division.

While the Yellow Jackets suffered a deflating loss to Miami, their ACC title hopes are very much alive.  After this week, Georgia Tech has a very manageable schedule with no ranked teams remaining and out-of-conference Georgia as the only real battle.

If the Jackets can hold their own at home, then all they need is another Miami loss for a trip to play in the ACC Championship game.

The Hokies have bounced back from their early-season loss to Alabama and lead the conference with a 3-0 ACC record.

Like their opponent, the rest of their schedule looks promising, with North Carolina as the biggest obstacle between them and an ACC title appearance.

For the Hokies, this game is huge because a win all but guarantees them an appearance in the conference title game.

Currently, Virginia Tech is favored by three points.

On offense, the two teams are very similar, scoring an average of around 33 points per game.

Defense is the key statistic, with Virginia Tech giving up 17.7 points per game and Georgia Tech 26.5.

With this in mind, expect Virginia Tech to not only win but cover the spread.  With all respect to the Paul Johnson offense, they do not have the same “surprise” factor that they did last year and the Hokie defense will be ready.

Prediction:  Virginia Tech 31, Georgia Tech 24.

Another week and another loss has the current spotlight resting on defensive coordinator Willie Martinez.  Since taking over the job in 2005 the program has seen the defensive plummet from what was formerly known as one of the SEC powerhouses. The following is a list of some daunting defensive statistics in the Martinez era.

2005          2006          2007          2008          2009

14.6            17.1          21.0            25.6           27.8 Points Allowed Per Game

298             264           325             318             358 Yards Allowed Per Game

2                  4                 3                10                11 SEC Rank On Defense

The numbers don’t lie; Georgia’s defense has grown steadily worse from year to year.

Currently the defense is giving up nearly twice the points per game that the team was allowing in Martinez’s first year. In addition, the yards per game have increased by over 60 yards.

With the increasing talent level in the SEC, it would be easy to dismiss the points and yards as a product of playing against the nation’s best offenses. The last statistic is the killer though showing that Georgia has quickly fallen from one of the best defenses in the conference to the bottom of the pile.

Another scary statistic for Georgia fans is one that links SEC Championships to defensive ranking in the conference.

Every team in the last six years to win an SEC title was ranked either No. 1 or 2 in total defense in the conference. Currently Martinez has not been able to produce that caliber of defense leaving the Bulldogs looking out and looking up to the top teams in the conference.

While Martinez has his strengths, he is unable to produce the type of defense that Georgia needs if they are going to compete among the best. The Bulldogs are obviously a step or two lower than Florida and until they get back to their roots on defense they will continue to play the role of little brother.

Regardless of how the rest of the season turns out, I expect that Martinez’s days are limited in Athens. Look for Richt to replace the defensive coordinator and try to reestablish Georgia as a power defensive team in the South.

ACC SEC Football brings you a breakdown of teams in the ACC Buy or Sell List.

North Carolina: Sell

The Tar Heels had high expectations leading into 2009, but their youth at receiver and the inability to spark the offense has hurt them. They have struggled in almost every game so far, and the loss to Virginia proves they are heading south. Things don’t get any better either, as their schedule still has Florida State, Virginia Tech, Miami, and Boston College left.

Miami: Buy

The Canes survived a brutal stretch of games and started their season 3-1. The loss to Virginia Tech puts them in a tough position to try to win the Coastal, but they still have potential for a great season. Their schedule gets very easy for a while, and they will put up big numbers in Jacory Harris’s bid for a Heisman.

Georgia Tech: Sell

This year has not been good to the Georgia Tech offense in big games when they couldn’t be touched in 2008. The defense for the Jackets hasn’t been the same either, and they are heading into their two biggest games of the year.

With consecutive road games at Florida State and Virginia Tech, look for Georgia Tech to give up a lot of points. If they don’t win at least one of these games, they will put themselves out of contention in the ACC Coastal race.

Boston College: Sell

While this was not supposed to be a big year for the Eagles, they raised a lot of hopes with a big win last week over Florida State. Things don’t look promising down the stretch though, as next week holds a road game in Blacksburg, Virginia. Later in the month another road game looms in South Bend against a strong Notre Dame team.

Florida State: Buy

Seminole nation may be in an uproar regarding the future of head coach Bobby Bowden, but when the politics are stripped off, they are a talented team. Their 2-3 record doesn’t look good, but the schedule ahead is promising.

After hosting Georgia Tech this weekend, Florida State has a long stretch of games with no ranked opponents until their annual rivalry matchup with the Gators. Look for a strong second half from the Noles.

The issue goes much deeper than a couple poor outings in 2009, though; Bulldog nation is tired of playing second fiddle in the SEC East.

Last year Georgia started the season ranked No. 1 in the nation, and everyone thought they were a legitimate contender for a national title. Things went straight downhill as the Bulldogs lost three games, most notably to rival Florida.

The defensive struggles that Georgia experienced last year have spilled over into 2009, and many are claiming that defensive coordinator Willie Martinez should be fired.

Much of the frustration amongst the Bulldog fans is due to something Richt can’t control: Last year Georgia suffered 18 season-ending injuries, a fate that would cripple any team.

Two major things need to happen for Richt to maintain his position as head coach of Georgia.

1. Richt needs to prove he can make the hard decision and fire a coordinator if he is not performing.

Many people doubt his ability to be the tough guy he needs to be as a head coach. His personal relationships with both coordinators would make a decision to move along without them very tough. If the defense doesn’t improve by the end of the year, Richt will need to pull the trigger and fire Martinez.

2. Georgia needs to outperform Florida on the recruiting scene.

While Richt’s Bulldogs have been a consistent top 10 or 15 team in recruiting, the Gators are almost always in the top five. It will be impossible to get any traction on Florida if they are continually falling farther behind in talent.

While this seems far-fetched, the emergence of Florida State and Miami back into the national picture helps Georgia. Recruits in the state of Florida now are considering all three schools as legitimate programs, whereas the past few years has allowed Florida to get the cream of the crop.

One other thing comes to mind that should help Bulldog fans feel more confident about their coach. A saying in any sport regarding coaches is, “Don’t fire somebody until you know who you are going to replace him with.”

Be honest with yourselves, Georgia fans. Who out there is available and is going to outperform Mark Richt? He is definitely a step behind Urban Meyer at this point, but last time I checked Pete Carroll is the only contender for that position, and he’s not leaving sunny Southern California.

Richt has a great program going at Georgia, and it would be a mistake to let him go. He has some steps to take to get the program to a national title, but going with someone else would be taking steps backwards and would put Georgia among the South Carolinas and Kentuckys of the SEC.

1. Alabama

Alabama

For the second week in a row the Tide stay atop the SEC Power Rankings.  While the scoreboard against Kentucky is not extremely impressive Alabama went up 31-6 and put up 31 points in the second and third quarters alone.  Perhaps the most important stat from this game is the consistency from Greg McElroy and Mark Ingram. Saban will be dangerous this year with this great combo as McElroy has passed for nine touchdowns and only one interception, while Ingram broke out with a 140-yard performance and two scores.  If Alabama can take care of business next week against Mississippi, they will have a great chance at playing in Atlanta for an SEC title.

2. Florida

Florida

The Gators catch a break during their bye week as Georgia loses to LSU.  Not that they needed it, but now they have even more breathing room and are all but locked in to represent the East in the SEC Championship game.  The season’s biggest game for the Gators will come next week in a trip to Death Valley to take on a tough LSU team.  This has always been a hard venue to get a win at, especially at night, but Florida should be able to take care of business.  LSU has yet to face a stout defense and the Gators will be eager to make a statement after the week off.

3. LSU

LSU

LSU survived a scare in Athens with a 20-13 win.  Both teams played tough defense through three quarters and then lit up the scoreboard in the fourth.  Charles Scott carried the team that struggled to punch the ball in early.  He rushed for 95 yards and two late touchdowns in clutch situations.  Scott will have to be very productive when they matchup against Florida next week.  While LSU is an impressive 5-0, its record and ranking don’t tell the whole story.  They have struggled two weeks in a row on the road and have yet to release the dominant offense they were expected to have.  Were it not for a goal line stand against Mississippi State and an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty on Georgia late, the Tigers could easily be 3-2 at this point.  Regardless, if they can upset Florida next week all is forgiven and LSU will be recognized as a legitimate title contender.

4. Auburn

Auburn

The other Tigers in the west are also sitting at 5-0 but this team was not supposed to be this good.  Auburn has been the surprise team of the SEC with a high powered offense and a great schedule to help them get off to a good start.  After four straight home games the Tigers survived their first SEC road test beating Tennessee 26-22.  While the score was close, Auburn was ahead 23-6 at one point in the fourth quarter before Tennessee picked up three late scores.  The Tigers proved they can move the ball on even the toughest of SEC defenses with 459 total yards of offense.  Chris Todd played mistake-free football 218 yards passing and running back Ben Tate rushed for 128 yards and a score.  With Arkansas and Kentucky next on the schedule, Auburn could be 7-0 heading into their October 24th matchup at LSU.

5. Georgia

Georgia

The loss to LSU was emotionally devastating, but the Bulldogs still control their own destiny in the SEC East. (See No Worse For The Ware: Georgia’s Road Still Leads Through Florida) Georgia’s 3-2 record makes its performance look a lot worse than it is.  Defense and penalties plagued them early but they seem to have gotten some control.  The penalties have decreased in the last two games and the defense is starting to gain momentum.  A rivalry game against Tennessee this week should be a great defensive battle especially as Georgia is finally starting to show the ability to rush the passer.  Georgia is still on the radar in the SEC and they are a dangerous team when they get hot offensively.

6. Mississippi

Mississippi

The Rebels are still developing as a team but they showed signs of life offensively this week in a 23-7 victory against Vanderbilt.  Jevan Snead picked a bad time to throw three interceptions as Alabama looms next week.  Mississippi has yet to define a lead rusher and while they are getting decent yards on the ground they need someone to step up into the main role.  Next week does not look promising as they host Alabama, but the Rebels have a lot of talent and could win if they put all the pieces together.  Look for Snead to bounce back and keep it close against the Tide on Saturday.

7. South Carolina

South Carolina

The Gamecocks could benefit from their schedule more than anyone else in the conference.  While they have one SEC loss already they only have two games left against ranked opponents at this time.  Granted, those games are against Alabama and Florida, but South Carolina could have a nice looking record by the end of the year.  Their defense is only allowing 16.8 points per game and Stephen Garcia is on track to pass for over 2,300 yards this year.  The most important statistic for Garcia is his two interceptions to six touchdowns.  This comes after throwing eight picks last year and only six passes reaching the end zone.  Look out for South Carolina as Steve Spurrier may have found his long-awaited star quarterback to ignite the explosive offense.

8. Tennessee

Tennessee

The Volunteers have struggled to get their first big win under Lane Kiffin but their defense is one of the best in the SEC.  It is obvious that there is a lot of talent in Knoxville but the youth is not ready for big-time SEC games.  The Vols struggled to get off to a quick start and only late points against Auburn made the game close.  This week will tell a lot about Georgia and Tennessee as both teams have ridden the roller coaster of highs and lows.  Both coaches desperately need the win and the Tennessee offense will have to play at their best to get a “W”.

9. Arkansas

Arkansas

The Razorbacks are polar opposites on offense and defense.  Arkansas has been one of the most prolific teams on offense with 35.8 points per game.  On the flip side they are giving up an SEC worst 29 points per game.  It’s hard to compete in this conference without the ability to stop opponents.  While the Hogs have been impressive early, they cannot have high expectations with Auburn, Florida, and Mississippi lined up all in succession.  Five ranked teams still remain on the schedule with three of those games on the road.  Look for Arkansas to fall fast through the end of the year mainly due to the inability to get a stop on defense.

10. Mississippi State

Mississippi State

The Bulldogs gave away a game this weekend to a Yellow Jackets team that struggled on defense.  While Mississippi State put up 487 total yards, five turnovers killed their attack and a weak defense couldn’t stop Georgia Tech through the air or on the ground.  With a two week break from SEC action, the Bulldogs may be able to regroup and have a stronger second half of the season, but right now things are looking bleak.  The Bulldogs have been extremely inconsistent and have to host Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi later in the year.

11. Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt

The Vanderbilt football team has yet to get a signature win in 2009.  The Commodores are only putting up 20 points per game and the passing attack is the worst in the SEC.  The defense is the only promising unit on the team with only 15.6 points allowed per game.  With several tough games remaining on the schedule, look for Vanderbilt to continue to struggle and start looking to next year soon.

12. Kentucky

Kentucky

The 38-20 loss to Alabama was a lot worse than the scoreboard shows.  Four turnovers stalled the offense and Kentucky didn’t score a touchdown until midway through the third quarter.  The offense is second worse in the SEC and the defense is third worst.  While the Wildcats have just finished the hardest stretch of games any team will face in the conference, they still have two ranked opponents left in the next two weeks.  Kentucky has a rough patch ahead but could have a good second half of the year with several easy games down the road.

For more articles visit ACC SEC Football. “Stand Up For Your Team” ]]> http://accsecfootball.com/2009/10/05/sec-power-rankings-week-6/feed/ 0 http://accsecfootball.com/2009/10/04/no-worse-for-the-ware-georgias-road-still-leads-through-florida/ http://accsecfootball.com/2009/10/04/no-worse-for-the-ware-georgias-road-still-leads-through-florida/#comments Sun, 04 Oct 2009 14:35:27 +0000 isscheidt http://accsecfootball.com/?p=48 It’s hard to pull yourself out of bed as a Georgia fan this week.  Waking up to a gorgeous day suddenly gets smashed when the memory of the LSU game comes to mind.

As a fan, I can attest that Georgia left a bitter taste in my mouth and I went a few hours without cracking a smile after the game.  Taking emotion out of the loss brings a whole new perspective, though, as I realized that Georgia is really not in any worse position than they were before the game.

Now I know for the downtrodden UGA fans out there, this is probably the last thing you want to read as you curse the ref who flagged A.J Green for excessive celebration.  It’s easy to get caught up in the emotions that come from the fourth quarter roller coaster ride LSU and Georgia gave us yesterday.  To see the bigger picture of what this game meant to both teams, we have to look at the SEC as a whole.

Georgia was not expected to compete in the SEC East this year, and they knew heading into 2009 that Florida was their biggest challenge.  The Gators are already penciled in for the National Championship game in Pasadena and nobody was expecting much out of the Dawgs.  After a few flashes of talent, Georgia is beginning to get attention from the national media.

In order for Georgia to win the East they needed to beat out the Gators either by winning their head-to-head game in Jacksonville or by Florida picking up two losses in SEC play.  No person in their right mind can expect that Florida will lose two of their SEC matchups.  They have one of the easiest schedules with no Mississippi or Alabama on the schedule and only one true road test, LSU.

With that option gone, Georgia has known all year that they need a win in Jacksonville if they are going to have any shot in the East.  While that matchup is an entirely different article, let’s say that theoretically the Dawgs can somehow find a way to take care of business and Florida loses.

In this scenario, Georgia simply has to win the rest of their SEC schedule in order to take the East and play for the SEC Championship in Atlanta.  This is the only place that the LSU loss hurts them.  Now that they already have one loss in the conference, they need four important wins at both Tennessee and Vanderbilt, and late-season home victories against Auburn and Kentucky.

Georgia needs to be careful because the letdown factor from this week could spill over into a poor outing in Knoxville. While Georgia’s talent is superior to Tennessee, they need to stay focused on the big picture and forget the loss to LSU.

The Dawgs still control their own destiny in the SEC East and have a great chance to win in every game, with the exception of the Cocktail Party.  If Georgia can rebound against Tennessee this week and Vanderbilt next week, they put themselves in a great position.  A bye week heading into the Florida game could be the difference maker and with a little luck, Georgia could win the East.

Now I know that’s a lot of factors, but keep in mind the Mark Richt’s team has a history of finishing strong.  With the exception of the Florida game, the last two years Georgia has not lost an SEC game after the first week of October.  If that statistic holds true, then the entire season will boil down to one heated game on Halloween afternoon.

After sitting at number two all year, the Tide move into the number one spot in the SEC Power Rankings with a little help from their friends. Make no mistake, Alabama is stacked this year and their defense made a statement this week by holding Arkansas to only 7 points.

While Florida may be the better team by the end of the year, if these two teams played head-to-head next week, Alabama would have the edge with the injury to Tebow. One thing that Alabama has is the ability to make big plays. Quarterback Greg McElroy has had three straight games with over 70 percent of his passes completed and is averaging over 10 yards per attempt.

2. Florida

While we don’t know the severity of Tebow’s injury, all indications are that John Brantley has the ability to fill the roll and maintain some level of productivity on offense. If Florida keeps playing defense the way they have, they don’t need to score much.

They lead the SEC with 7.3 points allowed per game. The bye week will help the Gators regroup and prepare before heading into the toughest part of their schedule. Look for a strong performance against LSU in two weeks.

3. Georgia

With two unimpressive outings from LSU and Mississippi, Georgia slides up in the rankings. Expectations are low, but Georgia has shown they can win the close ones. Nail-biters in the last three wins were only by six points, on average.

When the offense is hot, UGA can put up big numbers, but their defense is giving up nearly 30 points per game. This week will be a big test with LSU traveling to Athens. If the defense can contain and Joe Cox has a mistake-free game, then it looks promising for the Bulldogs.

4. LSU

This week scared Tiger nation as LSU struggled to put away one of the SEC’s worst teams, Mississippi State. Once again, highly-touted running back Charles Scott was a no-show, as he carried only six times for 15 yards. After nearly 1,200 yards on the ground last year, Scott is only averaging 45 yards per game in 2009.

Another weakness that could be exposed against Georgia is the nearly 200 yards passing they have given up each game. On the positive side, Jordan Jefferson has been a stud with over 700 yards passing and seven touchdown tosses. Look for a great game from him as he tries to exploit the weak Georgia pass defense.

5. Auburn

While their defense isn’t scaring anyone, their offense has been lights-out on a consistent basis. They are averaging 45.3 points per game; almost identical to Florida’s numbers. Auburn has an SEC best 1,060 yards passing and second-best 1,045 yards rushing.

This week is a great test of that balanced attack, as the Tigers face one of the best defenses in the SEC in Tennessee. Look for a big day out of Chris Todd, as Auburn will try to move the ball through the air if Tennessee focuses on taking away the run.

6. Mississippi

We don’t know if the loss to South Carolina was just a hiccup or a true indication of the talent level of the Rebels. One thing is for sure, though; Mississippi has a lot of improvement that needs to be made in two weeks before they face Alabama.

As bad as the final score was against the Gamecocks, it still doesn’t show how effectively the Rebels offense was shut down. Of their 248 total yards, 125 of them came in the fourth quarter and a late touchdown was all that helped them save face. The upcoming game against Vanderbilt should be a good indicator of whether Mississippi can regroup or if they are a flop this year.

7. Arkansas

Despite the loss to Alabama, the Hogs are still a tough group to deal with. Alabama did a good job of defending against the pass and that is the only way to beat Arkansas. The Achilles’ heel for the Razorbacks is the lack of defense, with an SEC-worst 32 points per game allowed. The run defense has been fairly solid, but opponents are burning them for 263 yards through the air every game.

Those kinds of numbers are not going to win too many games in the SEC. Arkansas has a tough four-game stretch ahead of them with Texas A&M and Auburn at home, followed by Florida and Mississippi on the road. Don’t expect more than two wins in the next four for the Hogs.

8. Tennessee

The Tennessee defense had somewhat of a lapse this week as they allowed 319 passing yards to Ohio. This is one game that can go in the positive column for Jonathan Crompton, as he threw two touchdowns and only one interception. There are still big question marks for the offense, most notably the eight picks thrown by Crompton.

The defense does have the ability to win them a lot of games, though. Tennessee heads into the toughest stretch of their schedule as they host Auburn and Georgia, take their bye week, travel to Alabama, then face South Carolina at home. If Tennessee can shut down the high-powered offense of Auburn and get a win, it will be a good step towards a bright future in Knoxville.

9. South Carolina

While their Thursday night win was a big one against Mississippi, the Gamecocks are still a long way from being a contender in the SEC. They have good yardage statistics, but their offense has failed to be consistent and have only put up 24.5 points per game; second worst in the conference.

South Carolina is still one of the hardest teams to read because of how high and low their swings have been. They looked very mediocre against North Carolina State in their opener, but in the Georgia game, their offense showed flashes of brilliance. October 17th is the day when expectations will either be confirmed or denied as South Carolina travels to play Alabama.

10. Mississippi State

This week was a great performance from the Bulldogs. They stood toe-to-toe with LSU in every major statistical category except one; turnovers. Three interceptions and a fumble gave LSU a win they did not deserve after the Mississippi State defense shut down the LSU running game.

While the Bulldogs are not going to be competing for a SEC title this year, they have suddenly become scary with a scrappy defense and a good running game. They could be a good sleeper team, as they have five ranked teams still on their schedule. Look for an upset this week as they host a deflated Georgia Tech at home.

11. Vanderbilt

One of the most surprising units in the SEC this year could be the Vanderbilt defense, which has given up only 13.8 points per game. They lead the SEC with only 106 yards passing allowed per game and have already racked up five interceptions.

They could be the next team to upset Mississippi this week, as their defense squares off against Jevan Snead. The Commodore offense has improving to do in the passing game, as they have only scored one touchdown through the air all year.

12. Kentucky

It’s hard being near the bottom of the conference and having to go up against the number one team in the nation. Kentucky couldn’t move the ball Saturday as they accumulated only 179 yards of total offense all day.

To make matters worse, the schedule looks gruesome for the Wildcats with three straight SEC games looming against Alabama, South Carolina, and Auburn. After that, the pain may ease with a manageable schedule until the last two weeks of the season. Be prepared for a tough stretch in Lexington.

All around the nation, every poll has Florida at the No. 1 spot and no expectation of a loss on their schedule. The question is not which game the Gators will lose but simply if one game is realistically winnable for another team.

Individually, no team can say they match the talent level and experience the Gators have but with the wear and tear of an SEC season Florida is likely to fall victim to a loss.

Florida Losses From Past Three Years

In the Tim Tebow era the Gators have lost six games dating back to October 14, 2006, when Auburn won at home 27-17. That was the only loss for the eventual National Champions that year.

The following season saw Florida slip to 9-4 with losses coming to Auburn (20-17), at LSU (24-28), to Georgia (42-30) in Jacksonville, and to Michigan (41-35) in Orlando at the Citrus Bowl.

Last year the only blemish on the Gators record was a 31-30 loss at home to the Mississippi Rebels in what was possibly the upset of the year.

Scouting Report

When the six losses are examined statistically, several trends emerge to give teams insight and hope at toppling the giant in the East.

The overall scoring showed that with the exception of the LSU game, every team that beat Florida scored first to take an early lead. In addition, everyone except LSU was leading or tied going into the fourth quarter. While the Gators offense is potent, they have struggled to come back late in games. Since Tebow took over as the starter, the Gators are 1-5 when trailing at any point in the second half. The only time they reversed that trend was in last year’s SEC Championship Game against Alabama.

Turnovers have played a key part in many of the games as well as Florida has turned the ball over an average of two times per loss. Michigan was the only team to not beat Florida in the turnover battle while the Gators made big mistakes against other opponents.

A key component to any upset win is making at least one big play. In the 2006 loss to Auburn, the Tigers were able to score on a blocked punt, a fumble, and a safety. Georgia was able knock off Florida with two passing touchdowns of 84 and 53 yards. Most recently, Mississippi was able to showcase the big play with a 40-yard rushing touchdown and an 86 yard score through the air.

Finally, yardage also revealed several possible weaknesses for Florida. Florida was exposed on the ground in several losses giving up 133 yards rushing to Auburn, 140 to Mississippi, 151 to Michigan, 196 to Georgia, and 247 to LSU Compare this to the Gators average of 92.9 yards rushing per game allowed since 2006, and it is evident that the ground game is needed to get a win against Florida.

While no team has the talent to beat the Gators on paper, if these trends hold true, Florida will likely take one loss this season. Look out if the Gators don’t get on the board first as they have only twice in two years let an opponent lead with a touchdown and still come back to win.

If a team can score early, run the ball effectively, make a big play, and hold a lead at some point in the second half, they have the perfect recipe to upset the Gators.